NaNoWriMo

This year I have decided to participate in National Novel Writing Month (NaNoWriMo). I have always wanted to write a novel, but I’ve always let my internal editor get in the way. I convince myself that what I’m writing isn’t good enough and I start over or just quit. So this November, I’m not going to give myself the option of quitting and give myself permission to write badly.

NaNoWriMo is about setting a deadline and sticking to it. It’s easier to turn a bad novel in to a good novel through editing than to turn no novel in to any kind of novel. By getting something down on paper (or computer screen) you defeat the scariest antagonist in the world, a blank page.

So this is my public deceleration that in the month of November 2011, I will write a 50,000 word novel.

Now I just have to figure out what to write about.

Star Wars on Blu-ray

Yes, I purchased the new Star Wars Blu-ray box set (9 disk).  This was before I knew about the changes that where made specifically for the Blu-ray edition (blinking ewoks?!?).  While I am unhappy with the changes that have been made to the original trilogy, I really wanted to see it in high-def.

There seems to be two types of comments on the Amazon page for this Blu-ray set: people complaining about the changes made to the original trilogy and people telling those people to buy the theatrical release on DVD.  Well to the first group I would say, I hope that some day Lucas, or his estate,* will decide to release the original theatrical version of Star Wars on blu-ray, but you will probably have to wait a while.  To the second group I would say, the original theatrical version on DVD is a substandard transfer without even color or gamma correction.  The original trilogy must have been color corrected and restored in preparation for the CGI vandalism that is the Special Edition.  Why not release the pre-CGI versions of the movies?

Despite all that, it was definitely worth it to see the first scene between Darth Vader and Princess Leia in high definition.  There are details in costumes and sets that you can’t see on the DVD version.  The whole movie looks great as long as you ignore the bad CGI.  So, I’ll accept the changes as the price of admission to see the movies I love for the first time on blu-ray, but I’ll never forget that Han shot first.

* This in no way should be taken as a threat against Mr. Lucas’ life or a request for anyone else to harm him.

Blogus Interruptus

After a long break my blog is back on line and I promise to provide the same sporadic update schedule that I am known for.

I am working on recovering my old posts.  Unfortunately I never backed up my old blog.  When they have been recovered, they should appear bellow this one.

The Next Decade of Computing

Computer technology is improving at an exciting rate and has already had a major impact on the ways people work and play. I predict that several technological improvements over the next ten years will bring major changes to the way we use computers. Breakthroughs in processor technology will lead to an exponential increase in processing power. Portable computing devices, such as smart phones and blackberries, will become more robust and prevalent. We will have a continuous and ubiquitous connection to the internet. This ubiquitous internet will lead to a more globalized culture.

The number of transistors that can be put on a computer microprocessor doubles every two years. This combined with new materials, such as diamond, will produce a dramatic increase in processing power. This increased processing power will improve all levels of computing from multi-million dollar super computers to portable devices such as digital media players and cell phones.

Putting more processing power in to portable devices combined with breakthroughs in machine learning will lead to more intelligent devices. These devices, the successors of the modern blackberry or smart phone, will be used to augment the imperfect human memory. Contextual awareness will allow the devices to anticipate our needs. Such as, if you are having a conversation with someone you haven’t seen for a while a smart device could remind you of the topic of the previous conversation, upcoming birthdays or if the person owes you money.

These smart devices will also be constantly connected to the internet. Distributed computing could further increase their power by allowing devices to act as a single computer and run complex programs that a single device would be incapable of running. The internet will become ubiquitous and portable devices will become the primary interface allowing people to spend more time away from their computers without sacrificing productivity. We are already connected to the internet for a significant amount of the day. I believe within ten years we will start to be connected 24 hours a day. The internet already gives everyone easy access to a significant portion of human knowledge. I believe that this will increase and will lead to a more globalized culture.

This globalized culture could lead to greater understanding between geographically separated people. Easy exchange of ideas could lead to further scientific breakthroughs. The only prediction that I can make with certainty is that the future will be stranger than anyone can predict.

Why Intelligent Design Is Good

I recently watched the documentary Flock of Dodos, an interesting and mostly unbiased discussion of intelligent design and evolution. The documentary shows several of the arguments for and against intelligent design as well as the key people behind most of the battles to teach intelligent design in schools. A key piece of Flock of Dodos is the discussion of intelligent design by a group of evolutionists over a game of poker. The discussion shows why scientists are having such a hard time convincing some people. The intelligent design supporters have money and public relations firms that repeat a simple and consistent message, while the evolution camp has scientists that tend to come across as aloof and unable giving simple answers.

There is another documentary, Expelled, that presents the issue from the viewpoint of those who support Intelligent Design. I haven’t watched it yet, so I won’t comment on it.

One of the arguments by those who say Intelligent Design should be taught in science classes alongside Evolution is that Evolution is just a “theory”. Why the Theory of Intelligent Design isn’t just a theory must have something to do with faith, or some sort of logical fallacy. There are two problems with this statement.

First, a scientific theory is a tested and proven model that accurately explains and predicts a phenomenon. A hypothesis on the other hand is a guess or idea that has not yet been tested. Once a hypothesis has been tested and proven then it becomes a theory. While a fact is something that can be directly observed. Not something you just know to be true; that would be a belief.

Second, intelligent design has not been scientifically tested or proven, so it is not even a theory. In fact the primary evidence for intelligent design (irreducible complexity) has been physically and logically disproved. When you hold a belief despite a lack of or contrary evidence it is religion. And you can’t teach religion in school.

The Theory of Intelligent Design says that life is too complicated to have evolved without the help of some outside intelligence.

“ID begins with the observation that intelligent agents produce complex and specified information (CSI). Design theorists hypothesize that if a natural object was designed, it will contain high levels of CSI. Scientists then perform experimental tests upon natural objects to determine if they contain complex and specified information. One easily testable form of CSI is irreducible complexity, which can be discovered by experimentally reverse-engineering biological structures to see if they require all of their parts to function. When ID researchers find irreducible complexity in biology, they conclude that such structures were designed.”

Intelligent agents produce complex and specified information.
Biological systems have complex and specific information.
Therefore biological systems must have been produced by intelligent agents.

Or

A produces B.
C contains B.
Therefor A produced C.

The primary logical fallacy here is hasty generalization. They observed that intelligent agents produce CSI, not that only intelligent agents produce CSI. Here’s why. You can’t observe that only A causes B. You could, only observe A causing B, but that doesn’t mean that R doesn’t also cause B when you’re not looking.

Incidentally, R stands for random mutation in this example.

Here is another example of this logical fallacy.

Lizards have tails.
Monkeys have tails.
Therefore monkeys must be lizards.

I’m sure we can all agree that very few monkeys are in fact lizards.

The favorite example of irreducible complexity is the eye. The proponents of intelligent design claim that it is to complex to have evolved as a single random mutation and there is no series of useful mutations that could produce it. So someone figured out this.

It could have evolved from a light sensitive patch of skin, useful so a creature can tell if it is in the light or dark. Then it could grow in to a concave structure, useful to tell what direction the light is coming from. Then it could partially grow over producing a sort of pin hole camera giving highly directional light detection then rudimentary sight. Then a thin layer of skin could grow over the opening creating a rudimentary lens, further improving vision. And each of these steps could be separated by smaller steps that would have been minor improvements.

The one good thing to come out of this is the dissenting view point has given scientists opportunities to strengthen the theory. A theory has to be tested thoroughly. And evolution has been considered proven for so long within the scientific community that no one really questions it anymore. It’s like trying to design an experiment that either proves or disproves the existence of gravity. And why put in the effort when you already know that it exists? So the opportunity to disprove irreducible complexity and reject intuition as proof is a good thing. You should question everything, especially the things you know are true.